A Bayesian approach to improved estimation of causal effect predictiveness for a principal surrogate endpoint.

Biometrics
Corwin M Zigler, Thomas R Belin

Abstract

The literature on potential outcomes has shown that traditional methods for characterizing surrogate endpoints in clinical trials based only on observed quantities can fail to capture causal relationships between treatments, surrogates, and outcomes. Building on the potential-outcomes formulation of a principal surrogate, we introduce a Bayesian method to estimate the causal effect predictiveness (CEP) surface and quantify a candidate surrogate's utility for reliably predicting clinical outcomes. In considering the full joint distribution of all potentially observable quantities, our Bayesian approach has the following features. First, our approach illuminates implicit assumptions embedded in previously-used estimation strategies that have been shown to result in poor performance. Second, our approach provides tools for making explicit and scientifically-interpretable assumptions regarding associations about which observed data are not informative. Through simulations based on an HIV vaccine trial, we found that the Bayesian approach can produce estimates of the CEP surface with improved performance compared to previous methods. Third, our approach can extend principal-surrogate estimation beyond the previously considered setti...Continue Reading

References

Mar 14, 2002·Biometrics·Constantine E Frangakis, Donald B Rubin
Oct 28, 2005·Statistics in Medicine·Christopher J Weir, Rosalind J Walley
Nov 6, 2007·Statistics in Medicine·Peter B GilbertSteven G Self
Mar 28, 2008·Biometrics·Peter B Gilbert, Michael G Hudgens
Dec 17, 2008·The Annals of Applied Statistics·Li QinDongfeng Li
Jul 18, 2009·Statistics in Medicine·Booil Jo, Elizabeth A Stuart
Aug 16, 2011·The International Journal of Biostatistics·Tyler J Vanderweele

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Aug 5, 2015·Statistics in Medicine·Stuart G BakerKaren S Lindeman
Oct 30, 2014·Statistics in Medicine·Erin E GabrielPeter B Gilbert
Sep 24, 2015·Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics·Hannah EnsorChristopher J Weir
Jan 30, 2015·Statistics in Medicine·Dustin M LongChih-Da Wu
Jan 2, 2016·Journal of Causal Inference·Peter B GilbertIvan S F Chan
May 28, 2014·Autism Research : Official Journal of the International Society for Autism Research·Andrea C SamsonJames J Gross
Jun 21, 2014·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Asc ConlonM R Elliott
Dec 11, 2014·Clinical Trials : Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials·Jeremy M G TaylorMichael R Elliott
Aug 25, 2020·Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology·Ofer Harel, Corwin Zigler
Jan 1, 2020·Journal of Causal Inference·Peter B GilbertMichael G Hudgens

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.