PMID: 15379005Sep 24, 2004Paper

A bayesian approach to parameter estimation for a crayfish (Procambarus spp.) bioaccumulation model

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
Hsin-I LinKaren H Watanabe

Abstract

Bioaccumulation models are used to describe chemical uptake and clearances by organisms. Averaged input parameter values are traditionally used and yield point estimates of model outputs. Hence, the uncertainty and variability of model predictions are ignored. Probabilistic modeling approaches, such as Monte Carlo simulation and the Bayesian method, have been recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to provide a quantitative description of the degree of uncertainty and/or variability in risk estimates in ecological hazards and human health effects. In this study, a Bayesian analysis was conducted to account for the combined uncertainty and variability of model parameters in a crayfish bioaccumulation model. After a 5-d exposure in the LaBranche Wetlands (LA, USA), crayfish were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations and lipid fractions. The posterior distribution of model parameters were derived from the joint posterior parameter distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and the experimental data. The results were then used to predict the distribution of chrysene concentration versus time in the crayfish to compare the predicted ranges at the different study sites.

Citations

Mar 11, 2011·Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. Part a·Frederik De LaenderLionel Camus
Apr 10, 2009·Toxicological Sciences : an Official Journal of the Society of Toxicology·Karen H WatanabeNancy D Denslow
Aug 29, 2009·The Science of the Total Environment·Russell G Richards, Milani Chaloupka
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Richard R LesterIgor Linkov
Nov 3, 2010·Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry·Mara HauckA Jan Hendriks
Mar 1, 2008·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Elena AlonsoJosé V Tarazona
May 21, 2009·Environmental Science & Technology·Frederik De LaenderKarline Soetaert

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