A Bayesian dynamic model for influenza surveillance.

Statistics in Medicine
Paola SebastianiMarco F Ramoni

Abstract

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, the growing fear of an influenza pandemic and the recent shortage of flu vaccine highlight the need for surveillance systems able to provide early, quantitative predictions of epidemic events. We use dynamic Bayesian networks to discover the interplay among four data sources that are monitored for influenza surveillance. By integrating these different data sources into a dynamic model, we identify in children and infants presenting to the pediatric emergency department with respiratory syndromes an early indicator of impending influenza morbidity and mortality. Our findings show the importance of modelling the complex dynamics of data collected for influenza surveillance, and suggest that dynamic Bayesian networks could be suitable modelling tools for developing epidemic surveillance systems.

References

Jun 1, 1987·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·W P GlezenR G Mercready
Oct 5, 1995·The New England Journal of Medicine·K L NicholM Drake
Aug 1, 1997·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·P A Patriarca, N J Cox
Oct 8, 1999·Emerging Infectious Diseases·M I MeltzerK Fukuda
Mar 18, 2000·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·L SimonsenN J Cox
Apr 18, 2002·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Anna GoldenbergStephen E Fienberg
Nov 29, 2002·Pediatrics·Margaret B RennelsUNKNOWN Committee on Infectious Diseases
Feb 8, 2003·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ben Y ReisKenneth D Mandl
Jun 17, 2003·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Fu-Chiang TsuiMichael M Wagner
Oct 7, 2003·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Mark PorcheretUNKNOWN North Staffordshire General Practice Research Network
Oct 7, 2003·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Emily S PattersonSteven M Asch
Feb 7, 2004·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Li ZhangJames J Cimino
Aug 10, 2004·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Aziz A BoxwalaLuke Sato
Jan 29, 2005·Statistics in Medicine·Stephen E Fienberg, Galit Shmueli
Jul 19, 2005·Artificial Intelligence in Medicine·Ling WangPaola Sebastiani
Jun 1, 1984·IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence·S Geman, D Geman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Nov 26, 2010·BMC Public Health·Brajendra K SinghMark Ej Woolhouse
Jun 9, 2012·Skeletal Muscle·Rebecca L KuskoMonty Montano
Apr 10, 2014·PloS One·Jean-Paul ChretienF Ellis McKenzie
Oct 28, 2006·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Ronald M BloomKaren E Cheng
Apr 9, 2011·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Isaac S Kohane, Peter Szolovits
Nov 18, 2008·Statistics in Medicine·M FrisénL Schiöler
Sep 13, 2007·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·David BockMarianne Frisén
Mar 1, 2015·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·George HripcsakAdler Perotte
Aug 30, 2011·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·D ConesaA López-Qúilez
Aug 19, 2007·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Eva AnderssonMarianne Frisén
Jun 6, 2018·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Theodore LytrasBaltazar Nunes
Jul 12, 2008·Statistics in Medicine·Miguel A Martínez-BeneitoAurora López-Maside
Oct 17, 2014·Critical Care Medicine·Gennaro De Pascale, Edward A Bittner
Jul 19, 2019·Scientific Reports·Tao ZhangXiaosong Li
Jun 9, 2020·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Gideon Mensah Engmann, Dong Han
Mar 14, 2008·Journal of Biomedical Informatics·María M Abad-GrauPaola Sebastiani

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.