A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination

Mathematical Biosciences
M J LydeamoreJ M McCaw

Abstract

Infections with Sarcoptes scabiei, or scabies, remain common in many disadvantaged populations. Mass drug administration (MDA) has been used in such settings to achieve a rapid reduction in infection and transmission, with the goal of eliminating the public health burden of scabies. While prevalence has been observed to fall substantially following such an intervention, in some instances resurgence of infection to baseline levels has occurred over several years. To explore the biology underpinning this phenomenon, we have developed a theoretical model of scabies life-cycle and transmission dynamics in a homogeneously mixing population, and simulate the impact of mass drug treatment strategies acting on egg and mite life cycle stages (ovicidal) or mites alone (non-ovicidal). In order to investigate the dynamics of the system, we first define and calculate the optimal interval between treatment doses. We calculate the probability of eradication as a function of the number of optimally-timed successive treatment doses and the number of years over which a program is run. For the non-ovicidal intervention, we first show that at least two optimally-timed doses are required to achieve eradication. We then demonstrate that while more d...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 16, 2019·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Raghav TripathiJeffrey F Scott
Oct 3, 2018·Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease·Daniel Engelman, Andrew C Steer
Oct 28, 2019·Gates Open Research·Michael MarksAndrew Steer
Jun 10, 2019·BMC Pediatrics·Anwar E AhmedHamdan Al-Jahdali
May 24, 2020·Viruses·Tarunendu MapderKevin Burrage

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