A comparison and cross-validation of models to predict basic activity of daily living dependency in older adults.

Medical Care
Daniel O ClarkDouglas K Miller

Abstract

A simple method of identifying elders at high risk for activity of daily living (ADL) dependence could facilitate essential research and implementation of cost-effective clinical care programs. We used a nationally representative sample of 9446 older adults free from ADL dependence in 2006 to develop simple models for predicting ADL dependence at 2008 follow-up and to compare the models to the most predictive published model. Candidate predictor variables were those of published models that could be obtained from interview or medical record data. Variable selection was performed using logistic regression with backward elimination in a two-third random sample (n = 6233) and validated in a one-third random sample (n = 3213). Model fit was determined using the c-statistic and evaluated vis-a-vis our replication of a published model. At 2-year follow-up, 8.0% and 7.3% of initially independent persons were ADL dependent in the development and validation samples, respectively. The best fitting, simple model consisted of age and number of hospitalizations in past 2 years, plus diagnoses of diabetes, chronic lung disease, congestive heart failure, stroke, and arthritis. This model had a c-statistic of 0.74 in the validation sample. A m...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 11, 2015·European Journal of Internal Medicine·Edurne Alonso-MoránGiuseppe Tonnara
Aug 27, 2016·Aging & Mental Health·María José Calero-GarcíaMaría Dolores Calero
Jan 17, 2013·Journal of Applied Gerontology : the Official Journal of the Southern Gerontological Society·Daniel O ClarkDouglas K Miller
Feb 1, 2020·Canadian Journal on Aging = La Revue Canadienne Du Vieillissement·Natasha E LaneWalter P Wodchis

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