A critique of the false-positive report probability

Genetic Epidemiology
Joseph F Lucke

Abstract

The false positive report probability (FPRP) was proposed as a Bayesian prophylactic against false reports of significant associations. Unfortunately, the derivation of the FPRP is unsound. A heuristic derivation fails to make its point, and a formal derivation reveals a probabilistic misrepresentation of an observation. As a result, the FPRP can yield serious inferential errors. In particular, the FPRP can use an observation that is many times more likely under the null hypothesis than under the alternative to infer that the null hypothesis is far less probable than the alternative. Contrary to its intended purpose, the FPRP can promote false positive results. It should not be used. A modified FPRP is derived, but it appears to have limited application and does not address the problem of false reports of significant associations. The conditional error probability is a possible replacement for the FPRP.

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Citations

Apr 22, 2010·European Journal of Human Genetics : EJHG·Yu-Chung WeiChuhsing K Hsiao
May 5, 2011·Pharmacogenetics and Genomics·Hongping YuQingyi Wei
Feb 2, 2013·European Journal of Epidemiology·Linda BroerCornelia M van Duijn
Jan 3, 2013·Genetic Epidemiology·John R ThompsonCosetta Minelli
Feb 27, 2020·Genetic Epidemiology·Olga A Vsevolozhskaya, Dmitri V Zaykin
Jan 5, 2020·International Journal of Immunogenetics·Souhir MestiriHela Marmouch
Jun 1, 2016·Journal of Mathematical Psychology·M J BayarriThomas M Sellke
Jul 21, 2020·Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics·Seoung Wan NamAndreas Kronbichler

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