A diagnostic rule for acute gouty arthritis in primary care without joint fluid analysis

Archives of Internal Medicine
Hein J E M JanssensMatthijs Janssen

Abstract

Most cases of acute gouty arthritis are diagnosed in primary care and without joint fluid analysis in many instances. Our objectives were to estimate the validity of this diagnosis by family physicians and to develop a diagnostic rule. Patients with monoarthritis recruited in an open Dutch population with gout by family physician diagnosis were enrolled in a diagnostic study (March 24, 2004, through July 14, 2007). Validity variables were estimated using 2 x 2 tables, with the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals as the reference test. For development of the diagnostic rule, clinical variables (including the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals) were collected within 24 hours. Statistically significant variables and predefined variables were separately entered in multivariate logistic regression models to predict the presence of synovial monosodium urate crystals. Diagnostic performance of the models was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The most appropriate model was transformed to a clinically useful diagnostic rule. Three hundred twenty-eight patients were included in the study. The positive and negative predictive values of family physician diagnosis of gout were 0.64 and 0.87, ...Continue Reading

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