A failure-type specific risk prediction tool for selection of head-and-neck cancer patients for experimental treatments

Oral Oncology
Katrin HåkanssonIvan R Vogelius

Abstract

The objective of this work was to develop a tool for decision support, providing simultaneous predictions of the risk of loco-regional failure (LRF) and distant metastasis (DM) after definitive treatment for head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Retrospective data for 560HNSCC patients were used to generate a multi-endpoint model, combining three cause-specific Cox models (LRF, DM and death with no evidence of disease (death NED)). The model was used to generate risk profiles of patients eligible for/included in a de-intensification study (RTOG 1016) and a dose escalation study (CONTRAST), respectively, to illustrate model predictions versus classic inclusion/exclusion criteria for clinical trials. The model is published as an on-line interactive tool (https://katrin.shinyapps.io/HNSCCmodel/). The final model included pre-selected clinical variables (tumor subsite, T stage, N stage, smoking status, age and performance status) and one additional variable (tumor volume). The treatment failure discrimination ability of the developed model was superior of that of UICC staging, 8th edition (AUCLRF=72.7% vs 64.2%, p<0.001 and AUCDM=70.7% vs 58.8%, p<0.001). Using the model for trial inclusion simulation, it was found that 14...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 23, 2020·Acta Oncologica·Katrin HåkanssonIvan R Vogelius
Nov 14, 2019·European Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging·Jakob Schmidt JensenJacob Høygaard Rasmussen
Oct 28, 2021·Clinical Cancer Research : an Official Journal of the American Association for Cancer Research·Yue CaoJ Chad Brenner

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