A framework for comparing permanent and forecast-based flood risk-reduction strategies

The Science of the Total Environment
Konstantinos BischiniotisBart van den Hurk

Abstract

Flood risk can be reduced at various stages of the disaster management cycle. Traditionally, permanent infrastructure is used for flood prevention, while residual risk is managed with emergency measures that are triggered by forecasts. Advances in flood forecasting hold promise for a more prominent role to forecast-based measures. In this study, we present a methodology that compares permanent with forecast-based flood-prevention measures. On the basis of this methodology, we demonstrate how operational decision-makers can select between acting against frequent low-impact, and rare high-impact events. Through a hypothetical example, we describe a number of decision scenarios using flood risk indicators for Chikwawa, Malawi, and modelled and forecasted discharge data from 1997 to 2018. The results indicate that the choice between permanent and temporary measures is affected by the cost of measures, climatological flood risk, and forecast ability to produce accurate flood warnings. Temporary measures are likely to be more cost-effective than permanent measures when the probability of flooding is low. Furthermore, a combination of the two types of measures can be the most cost-effective solution, particularly when the forecast is ...Continue Reading

References

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Jan 30, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Jared LeClerc, Susan Joslyn
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Jan 1, 2015·Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change·Frans KlijnEdmund Penning-Rowsell
Sep 20, 2018·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Jeroen C J H AertsNick Sadrpour

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