A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes

Statistical Methods in Medical Research
Thomas P A DebrayKarel G M Moons

Abstract

It is widely recommended that any developed-diagnostic or prognostic-prediction model is externally validated in terms of its predictive performance measured by calibration and discrimination. When multiple validations have been performed, a systematic review followed by a formal meta-analysis helps to summarize overall performance across multiple settings, and reveals under which circumstances the model performs suboptimal (alternative poorer) and may need adjustment. We discuss how to undertake meta-analysis of the performance of prediction models with either a binary or a time-to-event outcome. We address how to deal with incomplete availability of study-specific results (performance estimates and their precision), and how to produce summary estimates of the c-statistic, the observed:expected ratio and the calibration slope. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods, and propose novel empirically-based prior distributions to improve estimation of between-study heterogeneity in small samples. Finally, we illustrate all methods using two examples: meta-analysis of the predictive performance of EuroSCORE II and of the Framingham Risk Score. All examples and meta-analysis models...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 9, 2019·Innovations : Technology and Techniques in Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery·Aravind KrishnanKaushik Mandal
Jul 25, 2019·Diagnostic and Prognostic Research·Thomas P A DebrayRichard D Riley
Aug 1, 2020·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Nina KreuzbergerNicole Skoetz
Apr 25, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Virginia Navajas-RomeroFelipe Hernández-Perlines
Jan 30, 2021·Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications·Lucie BiardSylvie Chevret
Dec 5, 2019·Circulation Reports·Naotsugu IwakamiToshihisa Anzai
Mar 6, 2021·Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology : the Official Clinical Practice Journal of the American Gastroenterological Association·Shanshan WuHwai-I Yang
May 7, 2021·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Andrew S MoriartyDean McMillan
May 6, 2021·Statistics in Medicine·Valentijn M T de JongThomas P A Debray
May 26, 2021·Statistics in Medicine·Richard D RileyKym I E Snell
May 28, 2021·Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery·Shubhra SinhaUmberto Benedetto
Jul 16, 2021·JAMA Otolaryngology-- Head & Neck Surgery·John J W LeeNikolaus E Wolter

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
coronary artery bypass

Software Mentioned

metafor ”
R package metamisc
R
- package “
R package “
metamisc
JAGS
metamisc ”
metafor
SAS

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