A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments

Nature Climate Change
Peer J NowackJohn A Pyle

Abstract

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever(1). Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations(1,2). Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies(1,2) in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with t...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 22, 2017·Nature Communications·Peter O HopcroftDavid J Beerling
Dec 12, 2017·Journal of Pediatric Orthopedics·Daniel WestacottAndrew Howard
Jan 15, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Theodore K KoenigRainer Volkamer
Jul 1, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Siyuan WangRainer Volkamer
Mar 18, 2020·Nature Communications·Peer NowackJoanna D Haigh
Aug 7, 2017·Geophysical Research Letters·Peer J NowackJohn A Pyle
Oct 14, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·David C WadeAlexander T Archibald
Oct 6, 2020·Reviews of Geophysics·S C SherwoodM D Zelinka
Nov 3, 2020·Journal of Climate·G ChiodoK Tsigaridis

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