Jan 7, 2006

A likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenetic trees

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
Richard H ReeMichael J Donoghue

Abstract

At a time when historical biogeography appears to be again expanding its scope after a period of focusing primarily on discerning area relationships using cladograms, new inference methods are needed to bring more kinds of data to bear on questions about the geographic history of lineages. Here we describe a likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenies that models lineage dispersal and local extinction in a set of discrete areas as stochastic events in continuous time. Unlike existing methods for estimating ancestral areas, such as dispersal-vicariance analysis, this approach incorporates information on the timing of both lineage divergences and the availability of connections between areas (dispersal routes). Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate branch-specific transition probabilities for geographic ranges, enabling the likelihood of the data (observed species distributions) to be evaluated for a given phylogeny and parameterized paleogeographic model. We demonstrate how the method can be used to address two biogeographic questions: What were the ancestral geographic ranges on a phylogenetic tree? How were those ancestral ranges affected by speciation and inherited by the daughter li...Continue Reading

  • References11
  • Citations269

References

  • References11
  • Citations269

Citations

Mentioned in this Paper

Cacopsylla chinensis
Cercis
Cercis chingii
Chrysis chinensis
Cipangopaludina chinensis
Celtis occidentalis
Cardioglossa occidentalis
Cissa chinensis
Callista chinensis
Cephalanthus occidentalis

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