Apr 1, 2015

A mathematical framework for statistical decision confidence

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Balázs HangyaAdam Kepecs

Abstract

Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. For human decision makers, confidence is a deeply subjective sense that can be difficult to study due to its inherently introspective nature. However, confidence can be framed as an objective mathematical quantity – the Bayesian posterior probability, providing a formal definition of statistical decision confidence. Here we use this definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. We analytically prove interrelations between statistical decision confidence and other observable decision measures. Among these is a counterintuitive property of confidence – that the lowest average confidence occurs when classifiers err in the presence of the strongest evidence. These results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human behavior to neural representations.

  • References
  • Citations

References

  • We're still populating references for this paper, please check back later.
  • References
  • Citations

Citations

  • This paper may not have been cited yet.

Mentioned in this Paper

Self Confidence
Research
Classification
Definition
Neural Stem Cells
Objective (Goal)
Dorsal
Posterior Pituitary Disease
Decision

Related Feeds

BioRxiv & MedRxiv Preprints

BioRxiv and MedRxiv are the preprint servers for biology and health sciences respectively, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. Here are the latest preprint articles (which are not peer-reviewed) from BioRxiv and MedRxiv.

Related Papers

Archives of Internal Medicine
J L Bootman
Tennessee Nurse
Kate Payne, Fern Richie
Managed Care Interface
Paul R Reich
© 2020 Meta ULC. All rights reserved