A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread.

Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
Timo Smieszek

Abstract

Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i) for the mechanistic model and (ii) under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers R0. The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mecha...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 16, 2012·Epidemiology and Infection·S G FeenstraJ H Richardus
Jun 22, 2012·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Leon DanonMatt J Keeling
May 4, 2012·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Mohammad HashemianNathaniel Osgood
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Feb 19, 2011·American Journal of Public Health·Bruce Y LeeSusan S Huang
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Jul 26, 2016·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Karin LeblThomas Selhorst
Jun 25, 2016·PLoS Computational Biology·Rossana Mastrandrea, Alain Barrat
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Feb 2, 2021·Transportation Research. Part C, Emerging Technologies·Baichuan MoJinhua Zhao

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