A mechanistic, stigmergy model of territory formation in solitary animals: Territorial behavior can dampen disease prevalence but increase persistence

PLoS Computational Biology
Lauren A WhiteMeggan E Craft

Abstract

Although movement ecology has leveraged models of home range formation to explore the effects of spatial heterogeneity and social cues on movement behavior, disease ecology has yet to integrate these potential drivers and mechanisms of contact behavior into a generalizable disease modeling framework. Here we ask how dynamic territory formation and maintenance might contribute to disease dynamics in a territorial, solitary predator for an indirectly transmitted pathogen. We developed a mechanistic individual-based model where stigmergy-the deposition of signals into the environment (e.g., scent marking, scraping)-dictates local movement choices and long-term territory formation, but also the risk of pathogen transmission. Based on a variable importance analysis, the length of the infectious period was the single most important variable in predicting outbreak success, maximum prevalence, and outbreak duration. Host density and rate of pathogen decay were also key predictors. We found that territoriality best reduced maximum prevalence in conditions where we would otherwise expect outbreaks to be most successful: slower recovery rates (i.e., longer infectious periods) and higher conspecific densities. However, for slower pathogen ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 3, 2021·Theoretical Ecology·Yun TaoNita Bharti

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
scraping

Software Mentioned

randomforest
R

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