A method for calculating Bayesian uncertainties on internal doses resulting from complex occupational exposures

Radiation Protection Dosimetry
M PuncherR K Bull

Abstract

Estimating uncertainties on doses from bioassay data is of interest in epidemiology studies that estimate cancer risk from occupational exposures to radionuclides. Bayesian methods provide a logical framework to calculate these uncertainties. However, occupational exposures often consist of many intakes, and this can make the Bayesian calculation computationally intractable. This paper describes a novel strategy for increasing the computational speed of the calculation by simplifying the intake pattern to a single composite intake, termed as complex intake regime (CIR). In order to assess whether this approximation is accurate and fast enough for practical purposes, the method is implemented by the Weighted Likelihood Monte Carlo Sampling (WeLMoS) method and evaluated by comparing its performance with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC method gives the full solution (all intakes are independent), but is very computationally intensive to apply routinely. Posterior distributions of model parameter values, intakes and doses are calculated for a representative sample of plutonium workers from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy cohort using the WeLMoS method with the CIR and the MCMC method. The distributions are in go...Continue Reading

References

Sep 29, 2000·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·A E RiddellR Strong
Apr 3, 2002·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·G MillerR Guilmette
Nov 30, 2006·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·A BirchallA C James
Jul 20, 2007·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·G Wilson, R K Bull
Aug 19, 2007·Health Physics·E K VasilenkoV Vostrotin
Nov 13, 2007·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·M Puncher, A Birchall
Aug 12, 2008·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·G MillerY V Zaytseva
Sep 23, 2008·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·M Puncher, A Birchall
Mar 12, 2010·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·J M A VickersR Collision
Sep 15, 2010·Health Physics·E DavesneE Blanchardon
Jun 23, 2011·Radiation Research·Matthew PuncherRichard K Bull

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Citations

Aug 31, 2016·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·Alan BirchallVadim Vostrotin
Sep 11, 2016·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·Matthew PuncherKlara G Suslova
Mar 30, 2018·Health Physics·Alan BirchallSergei Y Tolmachev
Nov 20, 2015·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·M Puncher, A E Riddell
Mar 25, 2017·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·B A Napier
Nov 1, 2017·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·A BirchallA Schadilov
Jan 13, 2015·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·Maia AvtandilashviliSergei Y Tolmachev
Jun 28, 2013·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·Sisko SalomaaWolfgang Weiss

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