A method of probability diagnostic assignment that applies bayes theorem for use in serologic diagnostics, using an example of Neospora caninum infection in cattle

American Journal of Veterinary Research
Mark C ThurmondSharon K Hietala

Abstract

To develop a method of probability diagnostic assignment (PDA) that uses continuous serologic measures and infection prevalence to estimate the probability of an animal being infected, using Neospora caninum as an example. 196 N caninum-infected beef and dairy cattle and 553 cattle not infected with N caninum; 50 dairy cows that aborted and 50 herdmates that did not abort. Probability density functions corresponding to distributions of N caninum kinetic ELISA results from infected and uninfected cattle were estimated by maximum likelihood methods. Maximum likelihood methods also were used to estimate N caninum infection prevalence in a herd that had an excessive number of abortions. Density functions and the prevalence estimate were incorporated into Bayes formula to calculate the conditional probability that a cow with a particular ELISA value was infected with N caninum. Probability functions identified for infected and uninfected cattle were Weibull and inverse gamma functions, respectively. Herd prevalence was estimated, and probabilities of N caninum infection were determined for cows with various ELISA values. Use of PDA offers an advantage to clinicians and diagnosticians over traditional seronegative or seropositive cla...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1993·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·D L SimelD B Matchar
Jan 1, 1997·Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation : Official Publication of the American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians, Inc·M C ThurmondP C Blanchard
Aug 25, 1999·The Veterinary Record·R C Mainar-JaimeS K Hietala
Nov 24, 1999·Mayo Clinic Proceedings·G A Diamond
Dec 23, 1999·International Journal for Parasitology·S K Hietala, M C Thurmond
Dec 28, 1999·Science·D Malakoff
Jan 21, 2000·Statistics in Medicine·E J BedrickW O Johnson
Mar 22, 2001·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·C ZepedaR Ruppanner

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Citations

Apr 3, 2007·Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association·Bruce R HoarSharon K Hietala
Aug 5, 2015·Statistics in Medicine·Adam J BranscumAndre T Baron
Feb 27, 2008·Statistics in Medicine·Adam J BranscumIan A Gardner
Oct 13, 2005·Statistics in Medicine·Young-Ku ChoiMark C Thurmond
Dec 12, 2003·Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation : Official Publication of the American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians, Inc·Mark C Thurmond
Nov 1, 2015·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Leandra Marla OshiroRenato Andreotti

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