A model for estimating ovarian cancer risk: application for preventive oophorectomy

Gynecologic Oncology
Vasily GiannakeasSteven A Narod

Abstract

It is important to identify women in the population who have a high risk of ovarian cancer and who might benefit from prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. The probability that a woman will develop ovarian cancer depends on her current age, her reproductive history and her genetic status. We simulated the distribution of ovarian cancer risk for the 2011 Ontario female population. We generated (at random) individual risks of ovarian cancer to age 80 for 6,301,340 women, based on the published risk factors, mutation frequencies and population age-specific incidence rates (SEER database). Risk factors included parity, breastfeeding, oral contraceptives, tubal ligation and family history. Genetic factors included 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and BRCA1/2 mutations. Of the 6,301,340 women simulated as the general population of Ontario, the (complete) model predicts that 65,805 women (1.0%) will develop ovarian cancer by age 80. There were 46,069 women (0.7%) with a risk of ovarian cancer above 5%. BRCA1/2 mutation carriers accounted for 67.4% of the women at greater than 5% risk (31,028 women). Among ovarian cancer patients at greater than 5% risk, a BRCA1/2 mutation was present in 89.2%. In contrast, SNPs contri...Continue Reading

References

Aug 9, 2011·Nature Genetics·Chey LovedayNazneen Rahman
Mar 7, 2013·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Celeste Leigh PearceUNKNOWN Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium
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Feb 26, 2014·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Amy P M FinchSteven A Narod
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Citations

Jun 19, 2015·Gynecologic Oncology·Victoria SopikSteven A Narod
Aug 29, 2019·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Laura A M van LieshoutJurgen Mj Piek
Feb 11, 2020·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Joanne Kotsopoulos, Steven A Narod

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