A Model for Predicting the Future Risk of Incident Erosive Esophagitis in an Asymptomatic Population Undergoing Regular Check-ups

Medicine
Soo Hoon KangJae J Kim

Abstract

Erosive esophagitis is a major risk factor for Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Information regarding the putative risk factors for developing erosive esophagitis is considerably heterogeneous; thus, a risk model is required to clinically predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis. This study was to derive and validate a predictive model for the incidence of developing erosive esophagitis after negative index endoscopy in a population subjected to routine health check-ups. This retrospective cohort study of health check-ups included 11,535 patients who underwent repeated screening endoscopy after >3 years from a negative index endoscopy. We used logistic regression analysis to predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis, and a Simple Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Development score for risk assessment was developed and internally validated using the split-sample approach. The development and validation cohorts included 5765 patients (675 with erosive esophagitis [11.7%]) and 5770 patients (670 with erosive esophagitis [11.6%]), respectively. The final model included sex, smoking behavior, body mass index, hypertension, and the triglyceride level as variables. This model predicted 667 cases of erosive esoph...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 7, 2017·Gastroenterology·Joel E Richter, Joel H Rubenstein

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Software Mentioned

R ( R Foundation for Statistical Computing
SAS

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