A modelling framework for predicting the optimal balance between control and surveillance effort in the local eradication of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Andrew M GormleyGraham Nugent

Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) impacts livestock farming in New Zealand, where the introduced marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the wildlife maintenance host for Mycobacterium bovis. New Zealand has implemented a campaign to control TB using a co-ordinated programme of livestock diagnostic testing and large-scale culling of possums, with the long-term aim of TB eradication. For management of the disease in wildlife, methods that can optimise the balance between control and surveillance effort will facilitate the objective of eradication on a fixed or limited budget. We modelled and compared management options to optimise the balance between the two activities necessary to achieve and verify eradication of TB from New Zealand wildlife: the number of lethal population control operations required to halt the M. bovis infection cycle in possums, and the subsequent surveillance effort needed to confidently declare TB freedom post-control. The approach considered the costs of control and surveillance, as well as the potential costs of re-control resulting from false declaration of TB freedom. The required years of surveillance decreased with increasing numbers of possum lethal control operations but the overall time to ...Continue Reading

References

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Dec 17, 2014·New Zealand Veterinary Journal·A E ByromG Nugent

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