PMID: 9654891Jul 9, 1998Paper

A modified model for projecting age-structured populations in random environments

Mathematical Biosciences
M C Runge, A N Moen

Abstract

A discrete-time age-structured population model with vital rates linked to a stochastic environmental process was developed as a generalization of an existing model by making the explicit link between variability in the vital rates and variability in the environment more flexible. This modified model uses biologically relevant probability distributions for the vital rates, and allows for temporal autocorrelation and an arbitrary covariance structure between vital rates. Through simulations, the properties of the projected population in the short-term were investigated and compared to analytical approximations. The distribution of the total population size did not quickly approach lognormality under all conditions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the vital rates to the environmental process had a strong effect on the variance and distribution of the projected population size. These results suggest that short-term projections need to be carried out through simulation methods, as the analytical approximations technically apply only to the long-run asymptotic behavior. Techniques for parameter estimation were considered; recommendations depend on the form of the data available. The approach described allows the empirical calculatio...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 1979·Theoretical Population Biology·J E Cohen
Dec 1, 1977·Theoretical Population Biology·M S Boyce
Jun 1, 1989·Theoretical Population Biology·S Tuljapurkar
Oct 1, 1988·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·R Lande, S H Orzack
Apr 1, 1985·Theoretical Population Biology·C C Heyde, J E Cohen

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