A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics

Journal of Theoretical Biology
Ling XueCaterina Scoglio

Abstract

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human morbidity, mortality, and economic endpoints. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV, because suitable host, vector and environmental conditions for additional epidemics likely exist on other continents; including Asia, Europe and the Americas. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. Humans and livestock hosts and two species of vector mosquitoes are included in the model. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of t...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 5, 2013·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Daozhou GaoShigui Ruan
Oct 27, 2012·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Nakul ChitnisCarrie A Manore
Jul 24, 2013·Veterinary Research·Egil A J FischerHerman J W van Roermund
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Aug 12, 2014·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Farida ChamchodShigui Ruan
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Oct 7, 2016·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Maria Luisa DanzettaPaolo Calistri
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Jul 20, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Giovanni Lo IaconoJames L N Wood
Sep 16, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Raphaëlle MétrasMarion Subiros
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Mar 9, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Younjung KimGuillaume Fournié
May 27, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sophie A LeeRachel Lowe

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