A new approach to modeling daily probabilities of conception

Biometrics
P Royston, A Ferreira

Abstract

Standard conception probabilities models assume that different acts of intercourse make independent contributions to the probability of conception in viable cycles. We propose an alternative, approximate model based on the assumption that the act of intercourse closest to the time of maximum fertility is the one most likely to have caused conception. We describe an adaptive algorithm [the most fertile intercourse day (MFID) algorithm] that estimates the most fertile intercourse day in each cycle. The approach is easily extended to include covariates and random between-couple differences in fecundability that affect the probability of conception in a given cycle. Reanalyses of two data sets reported in the literature are presented. Estimates of the probability of conception during the most fertile period of the cycle and of the effects of covariates are similar to estimates found using standard models.

References

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Citations

Jun 24, 2011·Biostatistics·Rajeshwari SundaramGermaine M Buck Louis
Dec 31, 2003·Environmental Health Perspectives·Candace TingenDavid B Dunson
Feb 14, 2006·Revue D'épidémiologie Et De Santé Publique·R Ecochard
Nov 1, 2006·Fertility and Sterility·Janet E RobinsonJayne E Ellis
Mar 2, 2005·Biometrics·David B Dunson, Joseph B Stanford
Oct 26, 2006·Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology·Cecilia PyperMichael Murphy
Aug 12, 2008·Statistics in Medicine·Sofia DiasAndy Vail
Aug 22, 2015·Biometrics·Kirsten J LumThomas A Louis
Oct 19, 2004·Human Reproduction·G M Buck LouisL A Schieve
Apr 18, 2006·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Haibo Zhou
Apr 18, 2006·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·René Ecochard
Apr 18, 2006·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Bernardo ColomboBruno Scarpa
Dec 1, 2012·Bayesian Analysis·Sungduk KimCecilia Pyper

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