A new approach to modelling schistosomiasis transmission based on stratified worm burden.

Parasitology
David GurarieX Wang

Abstract

Multiple factors affect schistosomiasis transmission in distributed meta-population systems including age, behaviour, and environment. The traditional approach to modelling macroparasite transmission often exploits the 'mean worm burden' (MWB) formulation for human hosts. However, typical worm distribution in humans is overdispersed, and classic models either ignore this characteristic or make ad hoc assumptions about its pattern (e.g., by assuming a negative binomial distribution). Such oversimplifications can give wrong predictions for the impact of control interventions. We propose a new modelling approach to macro-parasite transmission by stratifying human populations according to worm burden, and replacing MWB dynamics with that of 'population strata'. We developed proper calibration procedures for such multi-component systems, based on typical epidemiological and demographic field data, and implemented them using Wolfram Mathematica. Model programming and calibration proved to be straightforward. Our calibrated system provided good agreement with the individual level field data from the Msambweni region of eastern Kenya. The Stratified Worm Burden (SWB) approach offers many advantages, in that it accounts naturally for ov...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 31, 2013·Pharmaceutical Research·Elizabeth L PonderSean Ekins
Oct 2, 2014·Parasitology Research·Fangying ZhongXinping Zhang
Apr 8, 2014·International Journal for Parasitology·Laith YakobArchie C A Clements
Oct 21, 2014·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Martial L Ndeffo MbahAlison P Galvani
Apr 15, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Ramzi A AlsallaqCharles King
Jan 6, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Nathan C LoCharles H King
Mar 30, 2017·Scientific Reports·Lorenzo MariRenato Casagrandi
Jul 19, 2020·The Lancet. Planetary Health·Christopher M HooverJustin V Remais
May 10, 2017·Trends in Parasitology·Andrea RinaldoMarino Gatto
Aug 22, 2017·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Lorenzo MariMarino Gatto

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