A new incidence peak of childhood narcolepsy type 1 in 2013:a new perspective on the role of influenza virus?

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Zhongxing ZhangR. Khatami

Abstract

Increased incidence rates of narcolepsy type 1 (NT1) after the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic (pH1N1) have been reported world-wide. While some European countries found an association between the NT1 increase and H1N1 vaccination Pandemrix, reports from Asian countries suggested the H1N1 virus rather than Pandemrix to be linked with the increase of new NT1 cases. We analyzed the number of de-novo NT1 cases in the last two decades until 2016 using the European Narcolepsy Network (EU-NN) database. Using robust data-driven modelling approaches we confirmed the peak of NT1 incidence in 2009-2010 pH1N1 and identified a new peak in 2013 that is age-specific for children/adolescents. Most of these de-novo cases showed a subacute disease onset consistent with an immune-mediated type of narcolepsy, which is most likely not related to Pandemrix vaccination that was used in 2009-2010, but may have been triggered by some new epidemiological event in Europe. Our finding of an unexpected peak in de-novo children narcolepsy in 2013 provides a unique opportunity to develop new hypotheses, such as considering other (influenza) viruses to further investigate the pathophysiology of immune-mediated narcolepsy.

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