PMID: 9541947May 30, 1998Paper

A new probability formula for surveys to substantiate freedom from disease

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Angus R Cameron, F C Baldock

Abstract

Surveys to substantiate freedom from disease are becoming increasingly important. This is due to the changes in rules governing international trade in animals and animal products, and to an increase in disease eradication and herd-level accreditation schemes. To provide the necessary assurances, these surveys must have a sound theoretical basis. Until now, most surveys have been based on the assumption that the screening test used was perfect (sensitivity and specificity both equal to one), and/or that the study population was infinite. Clearly, these assumptions are virtually always invalid. This paper presents a new formula that calculates the exact probability of detecting diseased animals, and considers both imperfect tests and finite population size. This formula is computationally inconvenient, and an approximation that is simpler to calculate is also presented. The use of these formulae for sample-size calculation and analysis of survey results is discussed. A computer program, 'FreeCalc', implementing the formulae is presented along with examples of sample size calculation for two different scenarios. These formulae and computer program enable the accurate calculation of survey sample-size requirements, and the precise ...Continue Reading

References

May 30, 1998·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·A R Cameron, F C Baldock
Mar 1, 1988·New Zealand Veterinary Journal·S C MacDiarmid

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Citations

May 17, 2005·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Matthias Greiner, Aldo Dekker
May 10, 2000·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·J Christensen, I A Gardner
Apr 20, 2001·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·R M Cannon
Feb 19, 2002·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·M ZillerH Schlüter
Nov 21, 2002·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Daniela C HadornKatharina D C Stärk
May 30, 1998·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·A R Cameron, F C Baldock
Mar 19, 1999·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·L Audigé, S Beckett
Dec 19, 2000·Veterinary Microbiology·F BoelaertJ Godfroid
Mar 4, 2010·Epidemiology and Infection·J ReiczigelL Ozsvári
May 31, 2007·New Zealand Veterinary Journal·B D GartrellN J Nelson
Aug 3, 2010·New Zealand Veterinary Journal·M A Ayanegui-AlcérrecaF Castillo-Alcala
May 4, 2012·New Zealand Veterinary Journal·A M J McFaddenA M Weir
Sep 19, 1998·Australian Veterinary Journal·F C Baldock
Feb 24, 2001·Australian Veterinary Journal·S A Reid, D B Copeman
Jan 18, 2012·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·L MurJ M Sánchez-Vizcaíno
Dec 1, 2001·Annual Review of Entomology·Robert C VenetteWilliam D Hutchison
May 2, 2009·BMC Veterinary Research·Benoit DurandChristian Ducrot
Mar 6, 2002·Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica. Supplementum·K D Stärk, M D Salman
May 2, 2012·Irish Veterinary Journal·Eoin Gerard RyanMichael L Doherty
Feb 12, 2011·PLoS Medicine·UNKNOWN malERA Consultative Group on Monitoring, Evaluation, and Surveillance

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