A nomogram to predict skip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer

World Journal of Surgical Oncology
Wenlong WangQianhui Ouyang

Abstract

Skip metastases are defined as lateral lymph node metastasis (LNM) without the involvement of central LNM in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), and it is difficult to predict in clinical practice. Our study aimed to investigate the risk factors of skip metastasis and establish a nomogram for predicting the probability of skip metastasis in PTC patients. A total of 378 consecutive PTC patients with clinically suspected LNM who underwent modified radical neck dissection (MRND) from March 2018 to July 2019 in our hospital were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to examine risk factors of skip metastasis, and a nomogram prediction model was established and internally validated. The incidence of skip metastases was 11.6% (44/378). Primary tumor size of ≤ 1 cm (OR = 2.703; 95% CI, 1.342-5.464; P = 0.005), age (OR = 1.051; 95% CI, 1.017-1.805; P = 0.005), and primary tumor location in the upper portion (OR = 6.799; 95% CI, 2.710-17.060; P < 0.001) were found to be independent risk factors for skip metastasis in PTC patients. A nomogram based upon these predictors performed well. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806 (95% CI, 0.736-0.876), and the P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 0.66. Decis...Continue Reading

References

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
dissection
biopsy

Software Mentioned

R
SPSS

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