A non-homogeneous discrete time Markov model for admission scheduling and resource planning in a cost or capacity constrained healthcare system.

Health Care Management Science
Lalit GargP Millard

Abstract

Healthcare resource planners need to develop policies that ensure optimal allocation of scarce healthcare resources. This goal can be achieved by forecasting daily resource requirements for a given admission policy. If resources are limited, admission should be scheduled according to the resource availability. Such resource availability or demand can change with time. We here model patient flow through the care system as a discrete time Markov chain. In order to have a more realistic representation, a nonhomogeneous model is developed which incorporates time-dependent covariates, namely a patient's present age and the present calendar year. The model presented in this paper can be used for admission scheduling, resource requirement forecasting and resource allocation, so as to satisfy the demand or resource constraints or to meet the expansion or contraction plans in a hospital and community based integrated care system. Such a model can be used with both fixed and variable numbers of admissions per day and should prove to be a useful tool for care managers and policy makers who require to make strategic management decisions. We also describe an application of the model to an elderly care system, using a historical dataset from...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 22, 2014·International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance·Marco António Ferreira Rodrigues Nogueira dos Santos, Henrik Kurt Olof Eriksson
Jun 23, 2011·Health Care Management Science·Jennifer GillespieKen Fullerton
Jan 5, 2013·Health Care Management Science·Peter J H HulshofJohann L Hurink
Nov 30, 2014·Journal of Biomedical Informatics·Smaranda Belciug, Florin Gorunescu
May 26, 2017·Health Services Management Research : an Official Journal of the Association of University Programs in Health Administration·Aya AwadJames McNicholas

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