A non-invasive risk score for predicting incident diabetes among rural Chinese people: A village-based cohort study

PloS One
Jiangping WenNingli Wang

Abstract

To develop a new non-invasive risk score for predicting incident diabetes in a rural Chinese population. Data from the Handan Eye Study conducted from 2006-2013 were utilized as part of this analysis. The present study utilized data generated from 4132 participants who were ≥30 years of age. A non-invasive risk model was derived using two-thirds of the sample cohort (selected randomly) using stepwise logistic regression. The model was subsequently validated using data from individuals from the final third of the sample cohort. In addition, a simple point system for incident diabetes was generated according to the procedures described in the Framingham Study. Incident diabetes was defined as follows: (1) fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L; or (2) hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%; or (3) self-reported diagnosis of diabetes or use of anti-diabetic medications during the follow-up period. The simple non-invasive risk score included age (8 points), Body mass index (BMI) (3 points), waist circumference (WC) (7 points), and family history of diabetes (9 points). The score ranged from 0 to 27 and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the score was 0.686 in the validation sample. At the optimal cutoff value (which was...Continue Reading

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SPSS ( Statistical Package for the Social Sciences )

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