A novel and accurate computer model of melanoma prognosis for patients staged by sentinel lymph node biopsy: comparison with the American Joint Committee on Cancer model

Journal of the American College of Surgeons
Glenda G CallenderKelly M McMasters

Abstract

We found that a computer model developed by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging committee had limitations for predicting prognosis of patients staged by sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy. We sought to develop a model that more accurately predicts prognosis in this population. Using a data set obtained from a prospective multi-institutional study of 2,507 patients with clinically node-negative melanomas ≥1.0 mm Breslow thickness, we developed a prognostic model using a Cox regression formula incorporating a number of significant clinicopathologic factors. The AJCC model and our model were used to predict 5-year survival from this test data set. The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was determined and chi-square tests were performed. Our new prognostic model was validated using an independent data set of 1,001 patients. Using the test data set, the CCC for the AJCC model was 0.875; chi-square tests demonstrated statistically significant differences between observed and predicted survivals for numerous clinicopathologic factors. The CCC for our model was 0.976 and none of the chi-square tests was statistically significant. Our model performed similarly well in SLN-negative patients (CCC 0.929) and...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Feb 4, 2014·Virchows Archiv : an International Journal of Pathology·Mario Mandalà, Daniela Massi
Sep 24, 2014·The Surgical Clinics of North America·Amy A Mrazek, Celia Chao
Feb 5, 2014·Journal of the American College of Surgeons·Michael E EggerKelly M McMasters
Oct 16, 2013·American Journal of Surgery·Michael E EggerKelly M McMasters
Jul 16, 2013·Current Problems in Surgery·Erik M Dunki-JacobsKelly M McMasters
Sep 13, 2012·The Journal of Surgical Research·Michael E EggerGlenda G Callender
Apr 8, 2016·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Alyson L MaharPatti A Groome
Jan 26, 2017·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Neal BhutianiKelly M McMasters
Feb 23, 2018·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Emily C ZaborKatherine S Panageas
Sep 19, 2019·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Michael E EggerKelly M McMasters
Feb 23, 2018·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Danielle M Bello, Charlotte E Ariyan
Dec 15, 2020·Journal of the American College of Surgeons·Matthew R WoesteMichael E Egger

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