A preliminary risk prediction model for cannabis use disorder

Preventive Medicine Reports
Rajapaksha Mudalige Dhanushka S RajapakshaSwati Biswas

Abstract

The ongoing trend toward legalization of cannabis for medicinal/recreational purposes is expected to increase the prevalence of cannabis use disorder (CUD). Thus, it is imperative to be able to predict the quantitative risk of developing CUD for a cannabis user based on their personal risk factors. Yet no such model currently exists. In this study, we perform preliminary analysis toward building such a model. The data come from n = 94 regular cannabis users recruited from Albuquerque, New Mexico during 2007-2010. As the data are cross-sectional, we only consider risk factors that remain relatively stable over time. We apply statistical and machine learning classification techniques that allow n to be small relative to the number of predictors. We use predictive accuracy estimated using leave-one-out-cross-validation to evaluate model performance. The final model is a LASSO logistic regression model consisting of the following seven risk factors: age; level of enjoyment from initial cigarette smoking; total score on Impulsive Sensation-Seeking Scale questionnaire; score on cognitive instability factor of Barratt Impulsivity Scale questionnaire; and scores on neuroticism, openness, and conscientiousness personality traits of Neur...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 25, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Laura ZoboroskiBrent Langhals

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Software Mentioned

ImpSS
knn
caret
LASSO
R
randomForest
glmnet
LOOCV
e1071
pROC

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