A quantitative assessment of the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain via legal trade of live poultry

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Fernando Sánchez-VizcaínoJ M Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free-trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV-infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 x 10(-3)...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Dec 15, 2010·Avian Pathology : Journal of the W.V.P.A·Fernando Sanchez-VizcainoJose Manuel Sanchez-Vizcaino
Dec 14, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Fernando Sánchez-VizcaínoJosé Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
Jun 21, 2015·Tropical Animal Health and Production·Joanne MillarWayan Suadnya
Aug 28, 2020·Frontiers in Microbiology·Amin N OlaimatRichard A Holley
Nov 20, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·João DelgadoPhil Longhurst

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