A quantitative insight into metastatic relapse of breast cancer

Journal of Theoretical Biology
Leonid Hanin, Lyudmila Pavlova

Abstract

Metastatic relapse is the principal source of breast cancer mortality. This work seeks to uncover unobservable, yet clinically important, aspects of post-surgery metastatic relapse of breast cancer and to quantify effects of surgery on metastatic progression. We classified metastases into three categories: (1) solitary cancer cells that were formed before or during surgery and either circulate in blood or are lodged at various secondary sites; (2) dormant or slowly growing avascular metastases; and (3) vascular secondary tumors. We developed a general mathematical model aimed at describing post-surgery dynamics of these three metastatic states. One parametric version of the model assumed that sojourn times of metastases in the three states are exponentially distributed while another was based on Erlang distribution. Model parameters were estimated from a sample of metastatic relapse or censoring times for 673 breast cancer patients treated with surgery. We estimated the expected number of metastases at surgery and mean sojourn times for the three states and found that both are decreasing with state number. We also computed the probability that metastatic relapse resulted from a metastasis in a given state at surgery. The values...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 27, 2020·Nature Communications·Zheng Hu, Christina Curtis

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