A resource-depletion model of forest insect outbreaks

Ecology
Bjørn Okland, O N Bjørnstad

Abstract

Detailed analyses of thresholded ecological interactions can improve our understanding of the transition from aperiodic to periodic dynamics. We develop a threshold model of the population dynamics of outbreaking bark beetle populations that alternate between non-epidemic and epidemic behavior. The model involves accumulation of resources during low-density periods and depletion during outbreaks. The transition between the two regimes is caused by disturbance events in the form of major tree felling by wind. The model is analyzed with particular reference to the population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) in Scandinavia for which a comprehensive literature allows full parameterization. The fairly constant outbreak lengths and the highly variable waiting time between outbreaks that are seen in the historical records of this species agree well with the predictions of the model. The thresholded resource-depletion dynamics result in substantial variation in the degree of periodicity between stochastic realizations. The completely aperiodic tree colonizations are partly predictable when the timing of the irregular windfall events are known. However, the predictability of inter-outbreak periods is low due to the l...Continue Reading

References

Dec 23, 1998·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·N C StensethN G Yoccoz
Nov 1, 2003·Science·Peter J Hudson, Ottar N Bjørnstad
Apr 6, 2005·Theoretical Population Biology·James A Powell, Jesse A Logan
Jul 7, 2005·The New Phytologist·Vincent R FranceschiTrygve Krekling

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Citations

May 12, 2011·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Kyrre KausrudNils Chr Stenseth
Feb 13, 2010·Ecology Letters·Alan Hastings, Derin B Wysham
Dec 17, 2014·Trends in Plant Science·Nate G McDowellCraig D Allen
Jul 12, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Vlastimil KřivanAndrew Liebhold
Aug 30, 2016·PloS One·Olalla Díaz-YáñezJosé Ramón González-Olabarria
Mar 29, 2014·The ISME Journal·Martina StursováPetr Baldrian
May 21, 2020·Royal Society Open Science·Yeisson GutiérrezChristoph Scherber
Oct 3, 2020·Global Change Biology·Jeffrey A HarveyMadhav P Thakur
May 1, 2021·Insects·Denis A DemidkoSvetlana M Sultson

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