A second look at the colors of the dinosaurs

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
Derek D Turner

Abstract

In earlier work, I predicted that we would probably not be able to determine the colors of the dinosaurs. I lost this epistemic bet against science in dramatic fashion when scientists discovered that it is possible to draw inferences about dinosaur coloration based on the microstructure of fossil feathers (Vinther et al., 2008). This paper is an exercise in philosophical error analysis. I examine this episode with two questions in mind. First, does this case lend any support to epistemic optimism about historical science? Second, under what conditions is it rational to make predictions about what questions scientists will or will not be able answer? In reply to the first question, I argue that the recent work on the colors of the dinosaurs matters less to the debate about the epistemology of historical science than it might seem. In reply to the second question, I argue that it is difficult to specify a policy that would rule out the failed bet without also being too conservative.

References

Oct 17, 1998·Eye·J K Bowmaker
Jul 2, 2008·Vision Research·James K Bowmaker
Jul 10, 2008·Biology Letters·Jakob VintherVinodkumar Saranathan
Nov 26, 2008·Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences·Ben Jeffares
Feb 6, 2010·Science·Quanguo LiRichard O Prum
Sep 17, 2011·Science·Mark A Norell
Jan 26, 2012·Nature Communications·Ryan M CarneyJörg Ackermann
Mar 10, 2012·Science·Quanguo LiJakob Vinther
Oct 25, 2014·Science·Marie-Claire KoschowitzMartin Sander

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Citations

Jan 17, 2016·Studies in History and Philosophy of Science·Adrian Currie, Derek Turner
Apr 26, 2019·History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences·Caitlin Donahue Wylie
Mar 13, 2019·History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences·Adrian Currie

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