A semi-stochastic model for Salmonella infection in a multi-group herd

Mathematical Biosciences
Yanni XiaoRoger G Bowers

Abstract

A multi-group semi-stochastic model is formulated to identify possible causes of why different strains of Salmonella develop so much variation in their infection dynamics in UK dairy herds. The model includes demography (managed populations) and various types of transmission: direct, pseudovertical and indirect (via free-living infectious units in the environment). The effects of herd size and epidemiological parameters on mean prevalence of infection and mean time until fade out are investigated. Numerical simulation shows that higher pathogen-induced mortality, shorter infectious period, more persistent immune response and more rapid removal of faeces result in a lower mean prevalence of infection, a shorter mean time until fade out, and a greater probability of fade out of infection within 600 days. Combining these results and those for the deterministic counterpart could explain differences in observed epidemiological patterns and help to identify the factors inducing the decline in reported cases of epidemic strains such as DT104 in cattle. We further investigate the effect of group structure on the probability of a major outbreak by using the stochastic threshold theory in homogeneous populations and that in heterogeneous...Continue Reading

References

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Dec 28, 2004·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Yanni XiaoNigel P French

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Citations

Sep 4, 2012·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Damian Clancy, Christopher J Pearce
Jan 1, 2010·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Bedr'Eddine AïnsebaPierre Magal
Nov 19, 2009·Foodborne Pathogens and Disease·Cristina LanzasYrjo T Gröhn
Oct 4, 2006·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Andrew YatesRoland R Regoes
Oct 5, 2010·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Pascal ZongoCatherine Beaumont
May 19, 2009·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Zhao LuYnte H Schukken
Mar 1, 2014·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Zhao LuYnte H Schukken
Jun 26, 2013·Mathematical Biosciences·Alexander D C BerrimanRobert M Christley

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