A semi-stochastic model of the transmission of Escherichia coli O157 in a typical UK dairy herd: dynamics, sensitivity analysis and intervention/prevention strategies

Journal of Theoretical Biology
J TurnerNigel P French

Abstract

When modelling the transmission of infection within small populations, it is necessary to consider the possibility of stochastic fade-out of infection. We present a semi-stochastic model for the transmission of a microparasite, in this case Escherichia coli O157, within a multigroup system, namely a typical UK dairy herd. The model includes birth, death, maturation, the dry/lactating cycle and various types of transmission (i.e. direct, pseudovertical (representing direct faecal-oral transmission between dam and calf within the first 48 h) and indirect (via free-living infectious units in the environment)). We present the results of our simulation study alongside data from empirical studies and also compare simulation results with those for the corresponding deterministic model. We then examine the effects of reducing shedding in the food-producing groups on outbreak size and prevalence of infection. A sensitivity analysis of herd prevalence reveals that, for both the deterministic and the semi-stochastic model, the prevalence within the herd is most sensitive to two parameters relating to the weaned group. This supports our previously reported conclusions for the deterministic model, which were based on an analysis of the next...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 15, 2008·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Margo Chase-ToppingMark Woolhouse
Mar 19, 2009·Foodborne Pathogens and Disease·P AyscueY T Gröhn
Nov 19, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Xu-Sheng Zhang, Mark E J Woolhouse
Feb 5, 2010·Environmental Health : a Global Access Science Source·Marc C KennedyJoanne Turner
Apr 9, 2011·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Michael P Doyle, Marilyn C Erickson
Feb 28, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Thomas CaracoIng-Nang Wang
Aug 14, 2015·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Simon E F SpencerNigel P French
Aug 22, 2008·FEMS Microbiology Letters·A Prysor WilliamsDavid L Jones
Sep 22, 2018·The Analyst·Rosa A S CoutoRichard G Compton

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