PMID: 11607362Feb 1, 1993Paper

A simple direct method for finding persistence times of populations and application to conservation problems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
M Mangel, C Tier

Abstract

The computation of persistence times of populations has become a central focus in conservation biology. We describe a simple, direct method for finding the statistics of persistence times by assuming that there is a maximum population size. Thus, even though the population dynamics may be very complex for population sizes below the maximum, it is possible to write a finite set of equations from which the mean and second moment of the persistence time can be found by using simple, algebraic methods. We apply the method to compute the mean and coefficient of variation of persistence times of populations that suffer large decrements (catastrophes). Our results show that in the presence of catastrophes, the increase in mean persistence time with large populations is not nearly as rapid as other theories suggest and that catastrophes occurring at even modest rates can considerably increase the risk of extinction.

References

May 21, 1981·Journal of Theoretical Biology·E G Leigh

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Citations

Feb 10, 2004·Theoretical Population Biology·T J NewmanC Quince
Jun 1, 2005·Theoretical Population Biology·B J Cairns, P K Pollett
Oct 4, 2006·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Richard P Duncan, David M Forsyth
Nov 24, 1999·The American Naturalist·William F FaganJoslin L Moore
May 9, 2006·Ecology·Chris WilcoxHugh P Possingham
Apr 7, 2009·Theoretical Population Biology·M J Keeling, J V Ross
Aug 24, 2006·Ecology Letters·Emily NicholsonHugh P Possingham
Oct 3, 2006·The Journal of Animal Ecology·James C BullMichael B Bonsall
May 3, 2014·Journal of Fish Biology·S VincenziM Mangel
Jun 16, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Colin J ThompsonLewi Stone
Sep 26, 2006·Ecology·John M Drake
Feb 1, 1995·Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution·Richard Gomulkiewicz, Robert D Holt
May 19, 2000·Journal of Theoretical Biology·H Hakoyama, Y Iwasa
Nov 5, 1999·Science·G E Belovsky Van Zandt PA

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