A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes

Water Research
Benny Zuse RoussoDavid P Hamilton

Abstract

Cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) in lakes and reservoirs represent a major risk for water authorities globally due to their toxicity and economic impacts. Anticipating bloom occurrence and understanding the main drivers of CyanoHABs are needed to optimize water resources management. An extensive review of the application of CyanoHABs forecasting and predictive models was performed, and a summary of the current state of knowledge, limitations and research opportunities on this topic is provided through analysis of case studies. Two modelling approaches were used to achieve CyanoHABs anticipation; process-based (PB) and data-driven (DD) models. The objective of the model was a determining factor for the choice of modelling approach. PB models were more frequently used to predict future scenarios whereas DD models were employed for short-term forecasts. Each modelling approach presented multiple variations that may be applied for more specific, targeted purposes. Most models reviewed were site-specific. The monitoring methodologies, including data frequency, uncertainty and precision, were identified as a major limitation to improve model performance. A lack of standardization of both model output and performance metrics w...Continue Reading

Citations

Jun 23, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Mohammad Hassan RanjbarFernanda Helfer
Aug 27, 2021·Environmental Pollution·Chengxiang ZhangGuangchun Lei
Dec 11, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Carolina Acuña-AlonsoFernando António Leal Pacheco
Nov 21, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Abigail S L LewisCayelan C Carey
Jan 8, 2022·Global Change Biology·Chong FangYunfeng Lyu

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