A valid and reliable belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Sindhu R JohnsonBrian M Feldman

Abstract

Bayesian inference has the advantage of formally incorporating prior beliefs about the effect of an intervention into analyses of treatment effect through the use of prior probability distributions or "priors." Multiple methods to elicit beliefs from experts for inclusion in a Bayesian study have been used; however, the measurement properties of these methods have been infrequently evaluated. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the feasibility, validity, and reliability of a belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors. A single-center, cross-sectional study using a sample of academic specialists who treat pulmonary hypertension patients was conducted to test the feasibility, face and construct validity, and reliability of a belief elicitation method. Using this method, participants expressed the probability of 3-year survival with and without warfarin. Applying adhesive dots or "chips," each representing 5% probability, in "bins" on a line, participants expressed their uncertainty and weight of belief about the effect of warfarin on 3-year survival. Of the 12 participants, 11 (92%) reported that the belief elicitation method had face validity, 10 (83%) found the questions clear, and 11 (92%) found the response optio...Continue Reading

References

Aug 1, 1995·Quality of Life Research : an International Journal of Quality of Life Aspects of Treatment, Care and Rehabilitation·C A McHorney, A R Tarlov
Jul 15, 1994·Statistics in Medicine·M K ParmarL S Freedman
Oct 1, 1996·British Journal of Rheumatology·E T KohM Abu-Shakra
Nov 20, 1996·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·M K ParmarR Simon
Feb 17, 1998·Statistics in Medicine·S D WalterA Donner
Feb 27, 2001·Statistics in Medicine·K Chaloner, F S Rhame
May 23, 2002·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Ine H J Van der Fels-KlerxSuzan H S Horst
May 31, 2002·Memory & Cognition·Jonathan St B T EvansNicholas Perham
Jun 13, 2002·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Sharon-Lise T NormandThomas G McGuire
Feb 18, 2006·Nature Reviews. Drug Discovery·Donald A Berry
Aug 11, 2006·Chest·Sindhu R JohnsonSanjay Mehta
Nov 1, 2006·The European Respiratory Journal·S R JohnsonJ T Granton
Nov 15, 2006·Evaluation & the Health Professions·Ariel LindenJohn L Adams
Jun 19, 2007·Statistics in Medicine·Lemuel A Moyé
Sep 1, 2009·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Sindhu R JohnsonBrian M Feldman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 25, 2013·Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science·Catherine Q SunThomas M Lietman
Aug 31, 2011·Applied Health Economics and Health Policy·Maarten J Ijzerman, Lotte M G Steuten
Mar 14, 2014·Applied Health Economics and Health Policy·Wieke HaakmaMaarten J IJzerman
Feb 3, 2016·Artificial Intelligence in Medicine·Anthony Costa ConstantinouLukasz Radlinski
Jul 7, 2011·Contemporary Clinical Trials·Charlotte RietbergenHerbert J A Hoijtink
Jan 3, 2015·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Amand F SchmidtRolf H H Groenwold
Feb 17, 2015·International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care·David HadornTony Blakely
Nov 18, 2014·International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care·Leslie Pibouleau, Sylvie Chevret
Oct 9, 2014·Annual Review of Pharmacology and Toxicology·Sean Hennessy, Brian L Strom
Oct 13, 2016·Clinical Trials : Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials·Caroline BrardLisa V Hampson
Apr 29, 2014·Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research·Lotte M G Steuten, Scott D Ramsey
Feb 16, 2017·Frontiers in Psychology·Mariëlle Zondervan-ZwijnenburgRens van de Schoot
Nov 20, 2016·American Journal of Medical Genetics. Part C, Seminars in Medical Genetics·Lusine AbrahamyanSamir Gupta
Aug 7, 2013·JPEN. Journal of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition·Ivan R DiamondPaul W Wales
Mar 1, 2018·The Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy·David R M SmithTimo Smieszek
Dec 21, 2017·Frontiers in Psychology·Duco VeenRens van de Schoot
Sep 20, 2017·European Spine Journal : Official Publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society·Cesar A HincapiéGeorge A Tomlinson
Jun 17, 2015·The Journal of Rheumatology·Amir HaddadVinod Chandran
Sep 6, 2017·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Peter F ThallSarah Zohar
Mar 2, 2019·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Christian Röver, Tim Friede
Dec 8, 2015·Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine·Igor BurstynJ Morel Symons
Oct 12, 2018·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·John A HarvinCharles C Miller
Jul 7, 2020·EFSA Journal·UNKNOWN EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA)Androniki Naska
Jan 28, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Moreno Ursino, Nigel Stallard
Mar 5, 2021·PloS One·Neal AlexanderJacqueline K Lim

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Blood Clotting Disorders

Thrombophilia includes conditions with increased tendency for excessive blood clotting. Blood clotting occurs when the body has insufficient amounts of specialized proteins that make blood clot and stop bleeding. Here is the latest research on blood clotting disorders.