A Value Measure for Public-Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Kenneth C Fletcher, Ali E Abbas

Abstract

This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening.

References

Mar 11, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Ralph L Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeldt
Mar 3, 2015·Acta Crystallographica. Section A, Foundations and Advances·Howard D Flack
Dec 23, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Adam RoseOswin Chan

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Citations

Jul 11, 2018·PloS One·James Price DillardRuobing Li

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