Accounting for population structure reveals ambiguity in the Zaire Ebolavirus reservoir dynamics

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Bram VranckenPiet Maes

Abstract

Ebolaviruses pose a substantial threat to wildlife populations and to public health in Africa. Evolutionary analyses of virus genome sequences can contribute significantly to elucidate the origin of new outbreaks, which can help guide surveillance efforts. The reconstructed between-outbreak evolutionary history of Zaire ebolavirus so far has been highly consistent. By removing the confounding impact of population growth bursts during local outbreaks on the free mixing assumption that underlies coalescent-based demographic reconstructions, we find-contrary to what previous results indicated-that the circulation dynamics of Ebola virus in its animal reservoir are highly uncertain. Our findings also accentuate the need for a more fine-grained picture of the Ebola virus diversity in its reservoir to reliably infer the reservoir origin of outbreak lineages. In addition, the recent appearance of slower-evolving variants is in line with latency as a survival mechanism and with bats as the natural reservoir host.

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Datasets Mentioned

BETA
MH481611
MH733477
MK007329
MH898466

Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCR

Software Mentioned

RootAnnotator
CLC Genomics Workbench
Canu
PhyML
BEAST
Albacore
MinKNOW
Porechop
MiniMap2
Nanopolish

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