PMID: 25781589Mar 18, 2015Paper

ACG model can predict large consumers of health care. Health care resources can be used more wisely, individuals at risk can receive better care

Läkartidningen
Martin FredrikssonLars Björkman

Abstract

We describe a method, which uses already existent administrative data to identify individuals with a high risk of a large need of healthcare in the coming year. The model is based on the ACG (Adjusted Clinical Groups) system to identify the high-risk patients. We have set up a model where we combine the ACG system stratification analysis tool RUB (Resource Utilization Band) and Probability High Total Cost >0.5. We tested the method with historical data, using 2 endpoints, either >19 physical visits anywhere in the healthcare system in the coming 12 months or more than 2 hospital admissions in the coming 12 months. In the region of Västra Götaland with 1.6 million inhabitants, 5.6% of the population had >19 physical visits during a 12 month period and 1.2% more than 2 hospital admissions. Our model identified approximately 24,000 individuals of whom 25.7% had >19 physical visits and 11.6% had more than 2 hospital admissions in the coming 12 months. We now plan a small test in ten primary care centers to evaluate if the model should be introduced in the entire Västra Götaland region.

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