DOI: 10.1101/19011072Nov 2, 2019Paper

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
E. C. LeeLouise C Ivers

Abstract

Background Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since, there have been over 820,000 reported cases and nearly 10,000 deaths. The year 2019 has seen the lowest reported number of cases since the epidemic began. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is safe and effective, but has generally not been seen as a primary tool for cholera elimination due to a limited period of protection and constrained supplies. Regionally, epidemic cholera is contained to the island of Hispaniola. Hence, Haiti may represent a unique opportunity to eliminate cholera by use of OCV. Methods We assess the probability of elimination and the potential health impact of OCV use in Haiti by leveraging simulations from four independent modeling teams. For a 10-year projection period, we compared the impact of five vaccination campaign scenarios, differing in geographic scope, vaccination coverage, and rollout duration to a status quo scenario without vaccination. Teams used common calibration data and assumptions for vaccine efficacy and vaccination scenarios, but all other model features and assumptions were determined independently. Findings A two-department OCV campaign proposed in Haiti's national plan for elimination had less than 50% probability of eliminatio...Continue Reading

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