Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments

The Science of the Total Environment
Edmar I TeixeiraF Ewert

Abstract

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil...Continue Reading

Citations

Oct 31, 2018·The Science of the Total Environment·Ranjan ParajuliMarty D Matlock
Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Edmar TeixeiraFrank Ewert
Jul 3, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Deborah PanepintoMariachiara Zanetti

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