Age effect on the prediction of risk of prolonged length hospital stay in older patients visiting the emergency department: results from a large prospective geriatric cohort study

BMC Geriatrics
Cyrille P LaunayOlivier Beauchet

Abstract

With the rapid growth of elderly patients visiting the Emergency Department (ED), it is expected that there will be even more hospitalisations following ED visits in the future. The aim of this study was to examine the age effect on the performance criteria of the 10-item brief geriatric assessment (BGA) for the prolonged length of hospital stay (LHS) using artificial neural networks (ANNs) analysis. Based on an observational prospective cohort study, 1117 older patients (i.e., aged ≥ 65 years) ED users were admitted to acute care wards in a University Hospital (France) were recruited. The 10-items of BGA were recorded during the ED visit and prior to discharge to acute care wards. The top third of LHS (i.e., ≥ 13 days) defined the prolonged LHS. Analysis was successively performed on participants categorized in 4 age groups: aged ≥ 70, ≥ 75, ≥ 80 and ≥ 85 years. Performance criteria of 10-item BGA for the prolonged LHS were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], negative predictive value [NPV], likelihood ratios [LR], area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]). The ANNs analysis method was conducted using the modified multilayer perceptron (MLP). Values of criteria performance were high (se...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 1998·Academic Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine·J McCuskerS Trépanier
Mar 27, 2003·Journal of the American Geriatrics Society·Kenneth E CovinskyC Seth Landefeld
Apr 6, 2006·Emergency Medicine Clinics of North America·Miriam T Aschkenasy, Todd C Rothenhaus
Sep 11, 2007·Journal of General Internal Medicine·S Nicole HastingsEugene Z Oddone
Jul 14, 2010·Annals of Emergency Medicine·Nikolaos SamarasGabriel Gold
May 4, 2013·The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences·Nadia SourialJack Guralnik
Jun 12, 2013·The Journal of Emergency Medicine·Olivier BeauchetCédric Annweiler
May 5, 2017·BMJ Quality Improvement Reports·Analiza BaldonadoDanielle Nelson

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Citations

Sep 24, 2020·Journal of the American Geriatrics Society·Carole Michalski-MonneratCédric Mabire
Dec 2, 2019·Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics·Daniela BrandãoConstança Paúl
Jun 11, 2021·Internal and Emergency Medicine·Torgny WessmanToralph Ruge

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