Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer

Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
Emily A BurgerPhilip E Castle

Abstract

Although new human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can occur at all ages, the age at which women acquire their "causal" HPV infection that develops into cervical cancer is poorly understood and practically unobservable. We aimed to estimate the age distribution at which individuals acquired their causal HPV infection in the absence of HPV vaccination or screening to help guide the optimal use of both. Using an empirically calibrated mathematical model that simulates the natural history of cervical cancer, we estimated the cumulative number of causal HPV infections by age, stratified by HPV genotype (HPV16 vs. other HPV genotypes), and the direct age-specific reduction in cancer incidence for alternative vaccination initiation scenarios (i.e., age 9-45 years). Our model projected that among all cervical cancers, 50% and 75% of women acquired their causal HPV infection by ages 20.6 (range: 20.1-21.1) and 30.6 (range: 29.6-31.6) years, respectively. HPV16 infections were acquired at an earlier age. Assuming 95% efficacy against HPV16 and HPV18 infections, the direct reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer varied from 55% (53-56%) among women vaccinated at age 9 years to 6% (range: 6-7%) among women vaccinated at age 45 years...Continue Reading

References

May 4, 2002·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Jane J KimSue J Goldie
Nov 20, 2004·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Nubia MuñozUNKNOWN Instituto Nacional de Cancerologia HPV Study Group
May 29, 2007·American Journal of Epidemiology·Jane J KimSue J Goldie
Jul 22, 2008·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Mark JitW John Edmunds
Aug 22, 2008·The New England Journal of Medicine·Jane J Kim, Sue J Goldie
Mar 26, 2009·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Cosette M WheelerPhilip E Castle
Jul 1, 2011·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Nicole G CamposSue J Goldie
Apr 26, 2012·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Cosette M WheelerUNKNOWN New Mexico HPV Pap Registry Steering Committee
Dec 5, 2012·Vaccine·Anna-Barbara MoscickiJoel Palefsky
Apr 4, 2013·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Mark Schiffman, Nicolas Wentzensen
Apr 9, 2013·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Iacopo BaussanoSilvia Franceschi
Aug 2, 2014·American Journal of Epidemiology·Nicole G CamposJane J Kim
Aug 20, 2014·Pediatrics·Daron FerrisAlfred Saah
Feb 3, 2015·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Nicole G CamposJane J Kim
May 1, 2015·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Mona SaraiyaUNKNOWN HPV Typing of Cancers Workgroup
Sep 2, 2015·Nature Reviews. Clinical Oncology·F Xavier BoschJack Cuzick
Sep 29, 2015·Annals of Internal Medicine·Jane J KimUNKNOWN New Mexico HPV Pap Registry Steering Committee
Dec 15, 2015·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Anne HammerJan Blaakaer
Jul 5, 2016·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Philip E Castle, Emily A Burger

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Mar 23, 2018·Climacteric : the Journal of the International Menopause Society·K Canfell
May 2, 2018·Expert Review of Vaccines·Talía MalagónEduardo L Franco
Dec 10, 2019·Annals of Internal Medicine·Jean-François LapriseMarc Brisson
Dec 11, 2019·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Emily A BurgerJane J Kim
Jul 31, 2020·CA: a Cancer Journal for Clinicians·Elizabeth T H FonthamRobert A Smith
Dec 24, 2018·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Philip E CastleMark Schiffman
Nov 19, 2017·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Carolyn M RutterAnna N A Tosteson
Jan 4, 2021·Molecular Biology Reports·Bharti GuptaSridevi Parikipandla
May 1, 2021·Microorganisms·Laura BergqvistKarolina Louvanto
Jul 28, 2020·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Anne F RositchAaron A R Tobian
May 19, 2021·Supportive Care in Cancer : Official Journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer·Linda ÅkefloKarin Bergmark
Jun 3, 2021·Clinical Otolaryngology : Official Journal of ENT-UK ; Official Journal of Netherlands Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology & Cervico-Facial Surgery·Shilpika BajpaiDavid G Lott
Jul 20, 2021·Current Problems in Cancer·Sevgi KocFulya Kayikcioglu

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Cancer Vaccines

Cancer vaccines are vaccines that either treat existing cancer or prevent development of a cancer.