Aiding risk information learning through simulated experience (ARISE): Using simulated outcomes to improve understanding of conditional probabilities in prenatal Down syndrome screening

Patient Education and Counseling
Pete Wegier, Victoria A Shaffer

Abstract

To determine whether the use of simulated experiences to communicate statistical information can improve an individual's understanding of conditional probabilities-specifically the positive predictive value (PPV) of prenatal screening tests for Down syndrome. In Experiment 1 (N=64) and Experiment 2 (N=180) participants were asked to estimate the PPV of a prenatal screening test for Down syndrome based on either (1) explicit statistics regarding the prevalence of Down syndrome and the sensitivity and specificity of a prenatal screening test for Down syndrome, or (2) experiencing up to 5000 simulated test results over a short time. Participants' estimates of the PPV were more accurate when they had learned via simulated experiences (79% accuracy) compared with estimates based on explicitly described statistics (14%). Participants in the simulated experience condition also reported decreased interest in screening and decreased concern with a positive test result. Simulated experiences improve PPV estimates, compared to estimates derived from explicitly provided statistics, while also shifting attitudes away from screening. The use of simulated experiences may prove to be simple but powerful tool to communicate complex statistical ...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 29, 2019·International Journal of Psychology : Journal International De Psychologie·Jakub TraczykRocio Garcia-Retamero
May 26, 2018·Arthritis Care & Research·Liana FraenkelEllen Peters
Mar 2, 2019·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Pete WegierVictoria A Shaffer
Jan 31, 2020·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Meghan Reading TurchioeRuth M Masterson Creber
Jul 14, 2020·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Bonnie A ArmstrongJulia Spaniol
May 31, 2019·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Kamil FulawkaJakub Traczyk
Feb 18, 2021·Patient Education and Counseling·Kerstin KalkeCourtney L Scherr
Sep 3, 2021·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·K D ValentineLaura D Scherer
Dec 8, 2021·Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science·Ralph Hertwig, Dirk U Wulff

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