Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Nature Communications
Nicholas J BouskillRobert F Grant

Abstract

Climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (<10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.

References

Jan 24, 2006·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Marilyn D WalkerPhilip A Wookey
Sep 12, 2014·The New Phytologist·Colleen M IversenStan D Wullschleger
Dec 31, 2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sarah C ElmendorfMarilyn Walker
Apr 10, 2015·Nature·E A G SchuurJ E Vonk
Feb 17, 2017·Global Change Biology·Marguerite MauritzEdward A G Schuur
Mar 11, 2017·Science·Caitlin E Hicks PriesM S Torn
Sep 28, 2018·Nature·Anne D BjorkmanEvan Weiher

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