Alternative methods for computing the sensitivity of complex surveillance systems

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
G M HoodP A J Martin

Abstract

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems-such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations-it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.

References

Feb 19, 2002·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·R M Cannon
Oct 9, 2004·The Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy·Shigeharu OieAkira Kamiya
Mar 25, 2005·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Jukka RantaRiitta Maijala
Nov 30, 2006·IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks·S Gareth PierceGraeme Manson

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Nov 1, 2015·Tropical Animal Health and Production·Abdirahman SalahAbdullahi Sheikh Mohamed
Jan 28, 2015·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Vladimir GrosboisTimothée Vergne
May 13, 2015·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Timothée VergneVladimir Grosbois
Oct 4, 2011·Infection, Genetics and Evolution : Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases·Andrew B ReevesJonathan A Runstadler
Mar 21, 2017·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·R-J SpencerMichael B Thompson
Sep 1, 2021·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Nicolas MeurisseJacqui H Todd

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.